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Waregem 0–2 Germinal

← Jupiler Pro League 2006-07 Β· Sat, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Waregem win42%2.15
Germinal win30%3.10
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricWaregemGerminal
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days2113.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1517.091562.98
elo momentum (last 5)-12.727.72
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.202.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.231.29
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
league points33.0038.00
league rank11.008.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win3.000.00
rest days7.006.00
season ppg1.181.36
state index-0.110.31
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60