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Lokeren 1–2 Gent

← Jupiler Pro League 2005-06 Β· Sat, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lokeren win38%2.37
Gent win34%2.62
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLokerenGent
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days342.00707.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1556.911614.09
elo momentum (last 5)18.1622.70
form points (last 5)8.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.071.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
league points43.0050.00
league rank7.004.00
matches since blank3.006.00
matches since clean sheet3.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
rest days8.007.00
season ppg1.481.72
state index0.371.00
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.40