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FC Brussels 2–1 Bergen

← Jupiler Pro League 2004-05 Β· Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Brussels win41%2.20
Bergen win31%3.00
Draw28%3.20

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC BrusselsBergen
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
elo1418.151420.98
elo momentum (last 5)-10.98-7.09
form points (last 5)3.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.00-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.821.64
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
league points17.0018.00
league rank17.0016.00
matches since blank2.002.00
matches since clean sheet20.005.00
matches since win1.003.00
rest days3.003.00
season ppg0.710.75
state index-0.66-0.75
venue ppg (last 5)1.200.60