⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Lokeren 1–2 SK Beveren

← Jupiler Pro League 2002-03 Β· Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lokeren win64%1.40
Draw23%3.90
SK Beveren win13%7.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricLokerenSK Beveren
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1263.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
elo1639.281331.12
elo momentum (last 5)16.7617.69
form points (last 5)10.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.850.97
h2 goals (last 10)1.101.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
league points40.0019.00
league rank2.0013.00
matches since blank3.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.006.00
season ppg2.111.00
state index1.23-1.14
venue ppg (last 5)2.600.80