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ES Troyes AC 1–0 Ajaccio GFCO

← Ligue 2 2018 Β· Fri, Apr 12, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
ES Troyes AC win51%1.91
Draw30%3.26
Ajaccio GFCO win20%4.91

across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
7Shots8
2On target1
6Corners2
15Fouls16
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricES Troyes ACAjaccio GFCO
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.000.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.204.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.204.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.172.21
defensive leak (last 5)0.020.07
dominance (last 5)0.450.44
elo1559.601392.28
elo momentum (last 5)31.7915.98
form points (last 5)13.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.25
league points52.0037.00
league rank8.0018.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.681.19
shot diff avg (last 5)-2.00-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)7.609.80
state index0.68-0.30
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80