← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 39% | 38% | 2.49 | fair |
| Niort win | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.35 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Niort |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 133.00 | 682.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1453.32 | 1459.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.12 | 34.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 43.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |