← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 63% | 57% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.36 | value: +24% |
| Ajaccio win | 14% | 14% | 6.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1412.00 | 559.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1562.38 | 1432.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.92 | -40.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| league points | 67.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.40 | -1.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |