← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC win | 41% | 37% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +14% |
| Valenciennes win | 28% | 27% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 310.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1428.31 | 1433.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.25 | 3.61 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 30.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |