← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 46% | 49% | 2.11 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.46 | fair |
| Creteil win | 26% | 23% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | Creteil |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 675.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.18 | 1383.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.85 | -3.95 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.73 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |