← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 63% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 28% | 4.34 | value: +20% |
| Evian Thonon Gaillard win | 15% | 15% | 6.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Evian Thonon Gaillard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 948.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1603.44 | 1448.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.37 | 3.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 68.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |