← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 70% | 50% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 29% | 4.95 | value: +41% |
| Tours win | 10% | 22% | 9.88 | value: +115% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 157.00 | 310.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1550.09 | 1472.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 50.40 | -3.36 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| league points | 62.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.72 | 1.31 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |