← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sochaux win | 43% | 25% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 38% | 3.13 | value: +19% |
| Ajaccio win | 26% | 37% | 3.82 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Sochaux |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 552.00 | 218.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1449.75 | 1451.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.35 | 4.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.91 | -0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |