← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Sun, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 47% | 52% | 2.08 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.48 | fair |
| Metz win | 25% | 20% | 3.88 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1400.00 | 152.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1598.15 | 1524.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.34 | 33.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 67.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.69 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |