← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bourg Peronnas win | 35% | 37% | 2.77 | value: +3% |
| Metz win | 35% | 36% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bourg Peronnas | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 136.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1468.38 | 1492.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.07 | 1.97 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 43.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.61 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |