← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 46% | 29% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 39% | 3.17 | value: +25% |
| Red Star win | 23% | 32% | 4.22 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 524.00 | 1377.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1472.63 | 1525.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.86 | -32.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 40.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.63 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |