← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 39% | 35% | 2.46 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 33% | 2.95 | fair |
| Evian Thonon Gaillard win | 28% | 31% | 3.52 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Evian Thonon Gaillard |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 91.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1429.45 | 1445.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.74 | -19.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |