← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 45% | 32% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.19 | value: +8% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 25% | 34% | 3.98 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1023.00 | 1356.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.82 | 1603.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.33 | -6.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 43.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.97 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |