← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 46% | 40% | 2.13 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.08 | value: +7% |
| Niort win | 23% | 25% | 4.33 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Niort |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 503.00 | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.92 | 1446.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.23 | -6.86 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| league points | 37.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |