← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 66% | 62% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Nimes win | 12% | 15% | 8.34 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1350.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1619.09 | 1459.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.48 | 9.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 59.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |