← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 34% | 28% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 37% | 2.91 | value: +8% |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 33% | 34% | 3.00 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 70.00 | 1016.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1415.17 | 1492.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.10 | 15.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 30.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.38 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |