← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz win | 45% | 52% | 2.16 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.95 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 22% | 16% | 4.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Metz | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 101.00 | 496.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.40 | 1485.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.29 | 25.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 44.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.55 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |