← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 48% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 25% | 3.13 | fair |
| Bourg Peronnas win | 21% | 26% | 4.58 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bourg Peronnas | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 892.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1435.81 | 1605.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.25 | -2.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.90 |
| state index | -0.90 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |