← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Mon, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 41% | 32% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.14 | fair |
| Metz win | 28% | 36% | 3.53 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1345.00 | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1490.05 | 1490.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.24 | -11.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| league points | 44.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.43 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |