← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 55% | 43% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 35% | 3.46 | value: +21% |
| Red Star win | 16% | 23% | 6.00 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 886.00 | 1343.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1594.14 | 1563.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.51 | 29.23 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 52.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.75 |
| state index | 0.21 | 0.63 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |