← Ligue 2 2015-16 · Fri, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 34% | 40% | 2.87 | value: +16% |
| Paris FC win | 33% | 23% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 36% | 2.98 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris FC | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 240.00 | 1182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1394.85 | 1496.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.98 | 13.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 18.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.48 |
| state index | -1.64 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |