← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 47% | 27% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.29 | value: +5% |
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 24% | 41% | 4.11 | value: +70% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 110.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1411.97 | 1530.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.12 | 20.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| league points | 39.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.76 |
| state index | -0.84 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |