← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon win | 35% | 39% | 2.74 | value: +6% |
| Nancy win | 35% | 30% | 2.75 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.32 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dijon | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1055.00 | 598.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1507.93 | 1560.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.42 | 28.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 58.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.57 |
| state index | -0.19 | 0.53 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |