← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 43% | 23% | 2.28 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.34 | fair |
| Nimes win | 28% | 47% | 3.50 | value: +63% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nimes | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1779.00 | 195.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1428.06 | 1413.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.33 | -18.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| state index | -1.11 | -0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |