← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 41% | 30% | 2.37 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.13 | fair |
| Creteil win | 28% | 41% | 3.51 | value: +46% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Creteil | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1451.06 | 1522.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.52 | 41.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| league points | 43.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| state index | -0.28 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |