← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orleans win | 63% | 38% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.88 | value: +15% |
| Nimes win | 12% | 32% | 8.08 | value: +160% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Orleans | Nimes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1041.00 | 1772.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1422.34 | 1426.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.28 | -48.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| state index | -0.73 | -1.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |