← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 49% | 42% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +4% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 23% | 27% | 4.30 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 311.00 | 888.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1510.21 | 1486.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.69 | -17.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| league points | 49.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| state index | 0.56 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |