← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 35% | 36% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 40% | 2.96 | value: +18% |
| Ajaccio win | 33% | 24% | 2.99 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 188.00 | 708.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1401.26 | 1532.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.62 | -19.78 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 34.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.54 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |