← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy win | 63% | 54% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 30% | 4.13 | value: +22% |
| Ajaccio win | 13% | 17% | 7.52 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nancy | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1547.03 | 1408.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.67 | -10.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 51.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| state index | 0.26 | -0.91 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |