← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 38% | 27% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.16 | fair |
| Chateauroux win | 31% | 42% | 3.17 | value: +34% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 577.00 | 89.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1322.82 | 1427.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.24 | 10.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 25.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 1.09 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |