← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 35% | 44% | 2.81 | value: +23% |
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 33% | 26% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 881.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1486.89 | 1522.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.72 | 41.35 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| league points | 49.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.76 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |