← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Tue, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Troyes AC win | 51% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.15 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 18% | 19% | 5.42 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ES Troyes AC | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1397.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1601.22 | 1534.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.31 | -8.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| league points | 66.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |