← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 48% | 43% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Chateauroux win | 22% | 28% | 4.43 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | AJ Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 570.00 | 874.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1317.06 | 1502.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.04 | 13.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| league points | 22.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.50 |
| state index | -1.59 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |