← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes win | 45% | 38% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.12 | value: +5% |
| Arles win | 24% | 28% | 4.06 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valenciennes | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 75.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1419.78 | 1351.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.08 | -1.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 33.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 0.74 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |