← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Auxerre win | 52% | 52% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.37 | fair |
| Tours win | 19% | 23% | 5.08 | value: +19% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AJ Auxerre | Tours |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 867.00 | 198.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1516.90 | 1420.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.84 | -3.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 48.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 0.97 |
| state index | 0.61 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |