← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 42% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.06 | fair |
| Chateauroux win | 26% | 32% | 3.79 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 556.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1332.77 | 1481.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.62 | 3.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| league points | 22.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 1.67 |
| state index | -1.18 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |