← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 36% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
| Arles win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1359.32 | 1491.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.75 | 2.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.33 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |