← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 55% | 53% | 1.77 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.50 | fair |
| Arles win | 17% | 18% | 5.79 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 276.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.51 | 1354.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.54 | 11.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 36.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.76 |
| state index | 0.39 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |