← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sochaux win | 62% | 58% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.83 | value: +3% |
| Chateauroux win | 12% | 15% | 7.96 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sochaux | Chateauroux |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 535.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1532.17 | 1345.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.53 | -15.18 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| league points | 42.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.79 |
| state index | -0.32 | -1.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |