← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio GFCO win | 41% | 36% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.98 | fair |
| Arles win | 26% | 32% | 3.73 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arles | Ajaccio GFCO |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1352.33 | 1482.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.37 | 17.46 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| league points | 21.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.71 |
| state index | -0.47 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |