← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio win | 42% | 38% | 2.31 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | 3.06 | value: +9% |
| Clermont win | 26% | 26% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ajaccio | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 139.00 | 992.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1431.77 | 1402.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.56 | -25.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 30.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.04 |
| state index | -1.03 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |