← Ligue 2 2014-15 · Fri, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niort win | 53% | 42% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +13% |
| Ajaccio win | 18% | 24% | 5.45 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Niort | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 255.00 | 132.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1476.49 | 1439.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 32.95 | -22.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 32.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.77 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |