← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 34% | 3.54 | value: +20% |
| Arles win | 21% | 19% | 4.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Arles |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1415.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1469.64 | 1443.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.98 | -10.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.63 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |