← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Istres win | 46% | 38% | 2.12 | fair |
| Dijon win | 30% | 34% | 3.27 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.03 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Istres | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 677.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1372.64 | 1511.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.86 | 24.53 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 36.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.47 |
| state index | -1.45 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |