← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clermont win | 42% | 38% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.32 | value: +14% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 29% | 28% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | ES Troyes AC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 677.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1447.28 | 1472.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.36 | -42.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 45.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.88 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |