← Ligue 2 2013-14 · Fri, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux win | 55% | 49% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.95 | fair |
| Creteil win | 20% | 27% | 4.78 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chateauroux | Creteil |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 220.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1429.58 | 1456.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.04 | 42.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 40.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.28 |
| state index | -0.98 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |